06.10.2025

⚡ September 2025 UK Energy Market Recap: Stability Beneath the Surface

September brought welcome stability back to the UK energy market.
Gas prices held steady throughout the month, while electricity appeared volatile due to short-lived price anomalies — though true contract pricing remained largely unchanged.

Overall, the market showed a steady return to balance, with prices slightly higher than summer averages but still well below 2024’s peaks.

📊 Market at a Glance

Month	Avg Gas (p/th)	Avg Power (£/MWh)
July	81.06	81.44
August	79.68	75.59
September	79.31	72.26

Gas: Held within a narrow 78–81p/therm range all month.
Power: Data was distorted by extreme dips mid-month, but supplier contract prices stayed in the low £80s/MWh range.
Forward contracts: Winter ’25 and Q1 ’26 eased slightly but remain premium-priced versus Summer ’26

🧭 Market Movement Summary

Early September: Gas traded around 78–80p/th, power steady near £75/MWh.
Mid-September: Power prices briefly plummeted to £28/MWh (16/09) — a rare outlier caused by excess renewable generation.
Late September: Both commodities rebounded to familiar ranges — finishing the month near 80p/th for gas and £85/MWh for power.

Key takeaway: Despite the noise, contract pricing remained steady.
The mid-month drop didn’t impact real-world business energy rates.

📈 Forward Market Outlook

Suppliers base their offers on forward contract pricing, not daily spot prices.
Here’s where those markets stand:

Gas:

Winter ’25 & Q1 ’26 – trading in the mid–high 80s p/th range
Summer ’26 – around the high 70s p/th

Power:

Winter ’25 – low–mid £80s/MWh
Summer ’26 – mid-£70s/MWh

Trend: Forwards softened slightly early in the month but recovered, showing underlying market resilience.

Forward prices remain elevated for the coming winter but could ease further if mild weather and strong LNG arrivals continue.

💡 What’s Driving the Market?

Gas Drivers:

Strong LNG imports and consistent Norwegian flows.
European storage levels above the five-year seasonal average.
Modest winter demand expectations maintaining short-term premiums.

Power Drivers:

Mid-month volatility caused by renewable output fluctuations.
Supplier pricing remained tied to gas and carbon costs.
Strength in oil and carbon markets added mild upward pressure late in the month.

🔥 Is Now a Good Time to Fix?

For most businesses — yes.

Forward pricing for Winter ’25 and Q1 ’26 is still at a premium, but signs of softening suggest an opportunity window.
Businesses renewing before March should consider locking in early to protect against typical Q4 and Q1 market uplifts.

Renewing within 6 months? Act now to cap risk.
Renewing later in 2026? Keep monitoring — we could see short-term dips worth capitalising on.

🌤 Looking Ahead to October

As temperatures drop, demand will start to rise.
Early October trends will depend on:

LNG arrivals and shipping schedules.
Weather forecasts – particularly for early cold snaps.
European storage withdrawals as heating demand increases.

If supply disruptions emerge, we could see tightening in forward prices — especially for Winter ’25 contracts.

Pro Tip: Businesses should review their renewal strategy now, not when invoices spike.

📉 Six-Month Market Trend Overview

Gas has remained between 78–85p/th for six months — a sign of notable stability.
Power has seen sharper day-ahead swings, but forward prices continue to anchor in the £80–85/MWh band.

This stability provides a valuable planning window for businesses managing long-term budgets.

⭐ Why Businesses Choose Next Gen Eco

We help UK organisations make smarter, lower-risk energy decisions — with live data, transparent advice, and no pressure tactics.

⚡ Final Thoughts

September confirmed what we’ve been watching all summer — a stable, predictable energy landscape returning after years of volatility.

However, with winter approaching, the message is clear:
Act early to secure pricing before October–March premiums take hold.

📩 Get your free renewal review with one of our consultants today

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